The Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance) forecast that in March the prices of some essential goods such as rice and fresh food tend to be stable; gas prices fell; Only a few commodities are forecasted to increase in price, including petrol and oil prices.

Rice, fresh food with stable prices

Taking into account the factors that may cause prices to increase in March, the Price Management Department believes that the world economy continues to receive positive signals from the recovery of major economies. The price forecast of some essential raw materials in the coming time tends to increase slightly.

In the domestic situation, March is still the time of the festival, the demand for travel, food consumption, and eating outside the family is likely to continue to increase; Diseases on livestock and poultry are complicated, which may affect food supply... are also factors that increase prices this month.

However, the supply-demand balance of domestic goods and services continues to be maintained, consumer demand for many items after Tet is not high; prices of some goods and services are likely to decrease (rice). LPG-gas) or stabilize (prices of electricity, coal sold for electricity production, sugar, cement, steel ..); market stabilization programs continue to be implemented in localities; ministries, branches, localities continue to strengthen price management and stabilize prices under the direction of the Prime Minister and related ministries and sectors... are other factors that keep the market price this month in a stable trend." , the Department of Price Management said.

Notably, some essential goods such as rice, fresh food, sugar, fertilizer... are forecasted to have a decreasing or stable trend.

The price of rice and rice in March is forecasted to have a downward trend because now is the peak harvest time of the winter-spring crop while demand is low. The reason is that the supply of rice from exporting countries such as India and Pakistan is quite large while the demand is not high, which has affected the price of rice for export to stabilize and decrease. The offer price of rice for export tended to decrease in March due to increased market supply as major rice exporting countries started the new harvest season and Thailand tried to sell rice to the market after the rice subsidy program. ends in February 2014.

Prices of fresh foods are also forecasted to have a stable trend as market demand does not fluctuate much after Tet. The prices of vegetables and fruits increased slightly due to the cold and rainy weather, affecting the growth of green vegetables, and the supply decreased.

The two input commodities of the construction industry, cement and iron and steel, have positive signals when it is forecasted that prices tend to be stable, especially at this time the construction market has begun to kick in.

Another good signal in the market price forecast this month is that the world LPG price in March is expected to decrease by about 107.5 USD/ton compared to February 2014.

Accordingly, the price of LPG in the domestic market is expected to decrease by about VND 31,000/bottle of 12 kg.

Petrol prices may increase

The most worrying information is the forecast that the world price of gasoline and finished oil in the near future is expected to increase. According to a summary of information from Reuters on February 21, 2014, the crude oil supply of some countries is expected to decrease in the near future, the Price Management Department cited. Political instability in South Sudan has reduced the country's crude oil supply by about 30%, equivalent to a decrease of 170,000 bpd. Besides, in March 2014, some plants in Plutonio, Angola will carry out periodic maintenance and repair, reducing supply by about 180,000 bpd. The above reasons will make gasoline prices forecast to increase this month.

The commodity that is forecasted to have a stable or slightly increased trend is animal feed materials. According to the Vietnam Animal Feed Association, in the first two months of the year, the prices of most of the feed ingredients such as cassava chips, corn, soybean meal, and rice bran increased compared to the previous month while the prices of some raw Other materials such as glass of sine, fish meal, methionine decreased slightly.

However, at this time, in the world market, the price of some feed ingredients increases due to a decrease in supply, so it is forecasted that the price of raw materials for animal feed in the world and in the country tends to be stable. or slightly increased.

According to the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index of the whole country in February 2014 increased by 0.55% compared to January 2014. Notably, although the peak days of the Giap Ngo Lunar New Year fell during the February 2014 price index calculation period, the consumer price index this month still increased lower than the growth rate of January 2014 (up 0 .69%), and at the same time increased much lower than the same period in February many years ago.

In terms of product group structure, there are 9/11 groups of first-class goods with an increase in the price index, however, only 2 groups (Food and catering services, culture, entertainment and tourism) have an increase in the index. Prices are higher than January 2014.

In which, the group of food and catering services had the highest increase in price index with an increase of 1.15% (food increased by 0.68%; food increased by 1.16%; out-of-home dining increased by 1. 60%).

Other groups with a price index increase of less than 1% include: Transport by 0.66%, Culture, entertainment and tourism by 0.61%, Beverages and tobacco by 0.60%, Goods and other services increased by 0.55%, Household appliances and appliances increased by 0.22%, Medicines and medical services increased by 0.05%, Education increased by 0.01%...

Two groups with declining price index are Housing and construction materials down 0.64%, Posts and Telecommunications down 0.02%.

Minh Anh
Source: Customs Newspaper